A Radiomics nomogram for predicting bone metastasis in newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients

Abstract

Purpose: To establish and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting bone metastasis (BM) in patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa).

Method: One-hundred and sixteen patients (training cohort: n = 81; validation cohort: n = 35) who underwent prostate MR imaging and confirmed by pathology with newly diagnosed PCa from January 2014 to January 2019 were enrolled. Radiomic features were extracted from diffusion-weighted, axial T2-weighted fat suppression, and dynamic contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MRI of each patient. Dimension reduction, feature selection, and radiomics feature construction were performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Combined with independent clinical risk factors, a multivariate logistic regression model was used to establish a radiomics nomogram. Nomogram calibration and discrimination were evaluated in training cohort and verified in the validation cohort. Finally, the clinical usefulness of the nomogram was estimated through decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Radiomics signature consisting of 12 selected features was significantly correlated with bone status (P < 0.001 for both training and validation sets). The radiomics nomogram combined a radiomics signature from multiparametric MR images with independent clinic risk factors. The model showed good discrimination and calibration in the training cohort (AUC 0.93, 95% CI, 0.86 to 0.99) and the validation cohort (AUC 0.92, 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.99). DCA also demonstrated the clinical use of the radiomics model.

Conclusion: The radiomics nomogram, which incorporates the multiparametric MRI-based radiomics signature and clinical risk factors, can be conveniently used to promote individualized prediction of BM in patients with newly diagnosed PCa.

Keywords: bone metastasis; imaging; nomogram; prostate cancer; radiomics.